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The Draft Day Value Chart

Posted Apr 18, 2011

There isn't a way to perfect an imperfect process

As the 2011 NFL Draft nears, one of the more intriguing scenarios surrounding the Chiefs draft day strategy involves the art of the trade. We took a look at trade history involving the 21st overall pick last week and, to say the least, the position has been extremely active in recent years.

Chiefs General Manger Scott Pioli touched on his thought process behind draft day trades during a pre-draft press conference several days ago. Specifically, Pioli focused on trading down for more picks.

“Can you trade back and still get a good player and pick up additional value that will give you organizational currency or organizational value where you still get a good player by moving back?

“It’s not like there’s a perfect formula.”

But there is a formula that most GMs at least take into consideration before pulling the trade trigger – the Draft Pick Value Board.

On the board, each draft choice is assigned a point value, providing GMs with a way to compare the relative value of draft picks in separate rounds.

Draft Pick Value Chart
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Other
1 3000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 28 193 15.2 225 2.9
2 2600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 27.6 194 14.8 226 2.8
3 2200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 27.2 195 14.4 227 2.7
4 1800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 26.8 196 14 228 2.6
5 1700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 26.4 197 13.6 229 2.5
6 1600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 26 198 13.2 230 2.4
7 1500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 25.6 199 12.8 231 2.3
8 1400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 25.2 200 12.4 232 2.2
9 1350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 24.8 201 12 233 2.1
10 1300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 24.4 202 11.6 234 2
11 1250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 24 203 11.2 235 1.9
12 1200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 23.6 204 10.8 236 1.8
13 1150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 23.2 205 10.4 237 1.7
14 1100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 22.8 206 10 238 1.6
15 1050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 22.4 207 9.6 239 1.5
16 1000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 22 208 9.2 240 1.4
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 21.6 209 8.8 241 1.3
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 21.2 210 8.4 242 1.2
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 20.8 211 8 243 1.1
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 20.4 212 7.6 244 1
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 20 213 7.2 245 0.95
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 19.6 214 6.8 246 0.9
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 19.2 215 6.4 247 0.85
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 31.8 184 18.8 216 6 248 0.8
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 31.2 185 18.4 217 5.6 249 0.75
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 30.8 186 18 218 5.2 250 0.7
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 30.4 187 17.6 219 4.8 251 0.65
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 30 188 17.2 220 4.4 252 0.6
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 29.6 189 16.8 221 4 253 0.55
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 29.2 190 16.4 222 3.6 254 0.5
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 28.8 191 16 223 3.3 255 0.45
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 28.4 192 15.6 224 3 256 0.4

The Chiefs 2010 draft provides a good example of a “fair trade” according to the value chart.

On Day Two, Kansas City moved into the third round to select Tony Moeaki with the 93rd pick. The Chiefs gave up 126 points to acquire 128, giving Houston picks 102 and 144 in exchange for No. 93.

All-in-all, a fair trade according to the value chart. Of course, there are plenty of flaws when it comes to using charts to try and perfect and imperfect process.

The rights to select Tom Brady, who was selected 199th overall in 2000, commanded a paltry 12.8 value points in return.

That same season, QB Giovanni Carmazzi’s draft slot was worth 265 points and Chris Redman was valued at 215. Chad Pennington (900 value points) and Marc Bulger (25.2 value points) each carved out solid NFL careers, but no quarterback from the Class of 2000, regardless of point value, can come close to rivaling Brady’s production.

At pick 199, Brady was the seventh quarterback chosen that year. How many Cleveland fans wish they had a do-over when it came to selecting DE Courtney Brown first overall  that season - 3,000 value points according to the trust trade chart…that’s roughly 234 Tom Brady’s.

But who knew Brady would develop into what he is today? Each team passed on the quarterback multiple times before the Patriots finally took the future Hall of Famer off the board.

In reality, the decision to trade picks is about balancing positional need against player availability.

For instance, the Chiefs could face a situation where there is a run on 3-4 outside linebackers/4-3 defensive ends just prior to the 21st pick – the Patriots, Chargers and Buccaneers hold three of the four choices that precede Kansas City.

Do you try to hop those teams if acquiring an outside linebacker leads your list of team needs? What does your board look like at other positions? Is there a shortage of talent? A surplus?

 “They’ll be times when we can’t put enough value together for the total package to move back or to move up,” explained Pioli.

In that case, the Chiefs stay put and may select the “best available,” regardless of position.

Just 10 days away from the draft, many seem to believe that the Chiefs are more likely to trade back than trade up if a first-round deal is actually made. Count me in that majority.

Pioli values additional draft picks and he doesn’t believe that the team is a single player away from becoming a perennial champion. Though the Chiefs are the defending AFC West Champions, there’s still plenty of work to do in improving the overall talent level on the club’s 53-man roster.

 “We are still very far off from where we want to be and what kind of football team we want to have,” Pioli said. “We’ve started to put some of the building blocks in place in understanding the world and the environment that we live in, that there are a lot of needs across the board.”