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Insider Blog: By The Numbers

Posted Apr 14, 2010

Some Chiefs switched their digits for 2010. Also, a look at top-10 pick statistics from the past five years.

We’ve got news in numbers today on kcchiefs.com…literally.

First things first, some of your favorite Chiefs will be wearing new numbers next season. Also, if you’ve been meaning to pull the trigger on that authentic Thomas Jones jersey, the numbers of our newest players have been determined as well.

First, the number swaps for 2010. I’ll leave the potential bartering and deal making that went on behind the scenes up to your imagination.

#20 – Thomas Jones (formerly worn by Donald Washington)

Washington will now wear #27 (vacated by Larry Johnson)

#65 – Ryan Lilja (formerly worn by Bobby Greenwood)

Greenwood will now wear #74 (vacated by Wade Smith)

#84 – Chris Chambers (formerly worn by Chandler Williams)

Williams will now wear #11 (vacated by Chambers)

Also, Derek Lokey will switch his number from #69 to #99.

As for the non-swaps, the following free agent additions will wear these numbers in 2010…

#4 – Tyler Palko

#62 – Casey Wiegmann

#83 – Jerheme Urban

#90 – Shaun Smith

Good, that’s in the bag.

Now let’s focus our concentration on #5. The number five isn’t currently worn by any Chiefs, but it’s most definitely the most talked about digit involving the team. With the Chiefs scheduled to add another cornerstone player to the roster in a mere eight days, it’s time to do another round of draft day handicapping.

For months we’ve looked at mock draft after mock draft. We’ve analyzed the impact of the Donovan McNabb trade on the Chiefs, who select just one spot behind Washington. We’ve also looked at different scenarios which have led to the Chiefs selecting offensive tackles Russel Okung, Trent Williams or Brian Bulaga, S Eric Berry, DTs Gerald McCoy or Ndamukong Suh, LB Rolando McClain, WR Dez Bryant and yes, even QB Jimmy Clausen.

Believe it or not, things are actually beginning to narrow down, but one unexpected move or trade and the fallout possibilities are nearly endless. Even so, most seem to think that Kansas City is primed to go with either Berry or one of the three offensive tackles listed above. The key word there is think.

In an effort to keep up with today’s theme of “numbers,” let’s let the statistics settle the debate this time around.

If the Chiefs were to follow the law of probability from the past five drafts, then statistics say that they would select a quarterback at number five. It comes as no surprise that the quarterbacks have the highest overall selection average when it comes to slotting the top 10 picks from each of the past five drafts. Since 2005, quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 picks have been selected at an average draft position of 3.4.

The majority of Chiefs fans seem comfortable in saying that the probabilities aren’t high in Kansas City selecting a quarterback at fifth overall, so let’s move to the second-highest positional draft slot. Surprisingly, this space belongs to the running backs at an average draft position of 4.0 for those taken in the top 10 picks of the past five years.

Just as the case when it comes to quarterbacks, the majority of Chiefs fans also seem comfortable in saying that the probabilities aren’t high in Kansas City selecting a running back at fifth overall either; particularly with the addition of Thomas Jones and the progression of Jamaal Charles.

This brings us to our third-highest positional average, which belongs to the offensive tackles. That position group has turned in top-10 picks over the past five drafts at an average position of 4.1.

Want more? Here’s the breakdown for each position group…

Quarterbacks (7) Year Pick

Matthew Stafford – DET 2009 1

Mark Sanchez – NYJ 2009 5

Matt Ryan – ATL 2008 3

JaMarcus Russell – OAK 2007 1

Vince Young – TEN 2006 3

Matt Leinart – ARZ 2006 10

Alex Smith – SF 2005 1

Avg. 3.4

Running Backs (6) Year Pick

Darren McFadden – OAK 2008 4

Adrian Peterson – MIN 2007 7

Reggie Bush – NO 2006 2

Ronnie Brown – MIA 2005 2

Cedric Benson – CHI 2005 4

Carnell Williams – TB 2005 5

Avg. 4.0

Offensive Tackles (7) Year Pick

Jason Smith – STL 2009 2

Andre Smith – CIN 2009 6

Eugene Monroe – JAX 2009 8

Jake Long – MIA 2008 1

Joe Thomas – CLE 2007 3

Levi Brown - ARZ 2007 5

D’Brick. Ferguson – NYJ 2006 4

Avg. 4.1

Defensive Ends (6) Year Pick

Tyson Jackson – KC 2009 3

Chris Long – STL 2008 2

Derrick Harvey – JAX 2008 8

Gaines Adams – TB 2007 4

Jamaal Anderson – ATL 2007 8

Mario Williams – HOU 2006 1

Avg. 4.3

Tight End (1) Year Pick

Vernon Davis – SF 2006 6

Avg. 6.0

Wide Receivers (7) Year Pick

Darrius Heyward-Bey – OAK 2009 7

Michael Crabtree – SF 2009 10

Calvin Johnson – DET 2007 2

Ted Ginn – MIA 2007 9

Braylon Edwards – CLE 2005 3

Troy Williamson – MIN 2005 7

Mike Williams – DET 2005 10

Avg. 6.8

Linebackers (6) Year Pick

Aaron Curry – SEA 2009 4

Vernon Gholston – NYJ 2008 6

Keith Rivers – CIN 2008 9

Jerod Mayo – NE 2008 10

A.J. Hawk – GB 2006 5

Ernie Sims – DET 2006 9

Avg. 7.2

Safeties (4) Year Pick

LaRon Landry – WAS 2007 6

Michael Huff – OAK 2006 7

Donte Whitner – BUF 2006 8

Antrel Rolle – ARZ 2005 8

Avg. 7.3

Cornerbacks (2) Year Pick

Adam Jones – TEN 2005 6

Carlos Rogers – WAS 2005 9

Avg. 7.5

Defensive Tackles (4) Year Pick

B.J. Raji – GB 2009 9

Glenn Dorsey – KC 2008 5

Sedrick Ellis – NO 2008 7

Amobi Okoye – HOU 2007 10

Avg. 7.8

So there you have it. Throw out the QBs and RBs and, realistically, the Chiefs are going to select an offensive tackle with the number five pick. What more is there to research?

Um, still not convinced? Fair enough.

The two times that the Chiefs have drawn top-10 picks during the past five drafts, they haven’t followed the suit of selecting the position which has historically been picked at top of the board. Dorsey and Jackson came in positions groups with ranked fourth and tenth respectively.

Only eight more days and we can change the discussion from draft prognostics to 2010 expectations. As we wait, the Chiefs draft day personnel will continue to bunker themselves in the film room from dusk, dawn and beyond.

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