Opening Salvos on Chiefs-Jaguars Match-Up

The Chiefs are seeking to win consecutive road games for the first time since 2007 when Kansas City registered a 30-16 victory at San Diego (9/30/07) and a 12-10 win at Oakland (10/21/07). The Jaguars have won their last two home games, but haven’t won three in a row at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium since 2007. The Jaguars are 31-20 (.608) at home under Jack Del Rio, but are just 4-7 (364) since the start of the 2008 campaign.

Since the NFL went to an eight-division alignment in 2002, the Chiefs are 3-3 on the road vs. AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 9-3 (.750) against AFC West opponents under Del Rio, including a streak of five straight wins. Jacksonville’s last loss to an AFC West foe was a 35-30 setback at Kansas City (12/31/06). The Jaguars last home loss vs. an AFC West foe was a 20- 7 setback vs. Denver (10/2/05). The Jaguars three victories this season have come against opponents with a combined 7-16 (.304) record - Houston (5-3), Tennessee (1-6) and St. Louis (1-7).

Chiefs Defense Seeks A Strong Performance at Jacksonville
The Chiefs defense allowed just six points and seven first downs on the club’s last road trip, a 14-6 win at Washington (10/18). Those six points were the fewest permitted in a road contest by KC since a 21-6 win at Minnesota (11/3/06), while the Redskins seven first downs were the lowest tally permitted by the Chiefs since allowing six first downs vs. San Diego (9/20/98).

Keeping the score low will be imperative for the Chiefs this week. KC has allowed 17 points or less in its last six road victories dating back to 2006. The Chiefs have outscored their foes by an average margin of 21.2 to 11.8 in those games. The Jaguars have lost 13 consecutive games when scoring 17 points or less, including all four of their losses this season. The Jaguars have scored just 42 total points (10.5 ppg) in those four setbacks. Jacksonville’s last victory when scoring 17 points or less was a 17-7 win at Kansas City (10/7/07).

The Jaguars have won 22 consecutive home games when scoring 30 points or more, including 11 straight wins under Jack Del Rio. Regardless of venue, Jacksonville’s last loss when scoring at least 30 points was a 35-30 setback at Kansas City (12/31/06). Jacksonville is 24-3 (.889) at home when scoring at least 21 points under Del Rio. The Jaguars are 0-28 all-time when permitting 30 points or more, including an 0-11 mark at home. Dating back to 2003, Jacksonville is 25-3 (.893) at home when holding foes to 17 points or less, including eight straight wins. Jacksonville’s last home loss in such a circumstance was a 13-10 loss vs. Tennessee (9/9/07).

A Fast Start and Strong Finish is Required at Jacksonville
The Chiefs will face a Jacksonville squad that is 26-7 (.788) under Jack Del Rio when scoring on its first offensive possession. Kansas City is one of four teams that has yet to score on its opening drive this season. The Jaguars are 33-7 (.825) when leading at halftime under Del Rio and are 16-38 (.293) when behind after two quarters. Jacksonville has trailed at halftime in all of its contests in 2009 except for a 37-17 win vs. Tennessee (10/4).

Jacksonville has allowed 68 points in the second quarter. Only four teams have allowed more. The Jaguars have permitted 98 points in the first half with only six teams giving up more. Kansas City has scored an NFL-low six points in the first quarter and has been outscored by a 39-point margin (45-6) in the opening quarter. No team has a bigger fi rst-quarter scoring deficit. Kansas City has been outscored by a 44-point margin (77-33) in the fi rst half, while Jacksonville owns a 32-point (98-66) scoring deficit in the first half.

The Jaguars have been outscored by a 24-point margin (47-23) in the third quarter, while Kansas City has been outscored by 16 points (36-20) in that period. The Jaguars are 39-7 (.848) under Del Rio when leading after three quarters, but are just 9-41 (.220) when trailing entering the fourth quarter. The Jaguars have been behind or tied after three quarters in every contest this season but their win vs. Tennessee (10/4). Only seven teams have scored more points in the fourth quarter than Kansas City (52). Jacksonville has outscored its foes by a 41-32 margin in the final period.

Turnovers Are Always a Key Factor for Kansas City
The Chiefs have been even or positive in four of their past five games. The Chiefs are tied for the NFL lead with only two lost fumbles. KC is tied for third in the NFL, allowing just 13 points off turnovers. Typically, a +2 turnover mark or better translates into a win. NFL teams that are +2 or better own a combined 43-7 (.860) record in 2009. Kansas City was +2 (2 takes/0 gives) in a 14-6 win at Washington (10/18). Jacksonville has registered just 13 points off takeaways, a figure that ranks 30th in the NFL. Only St. Louis (10) and Cleveland (9) own fewer points off takeaways. KC has scored 27 points off takeaways in 2009.

Dating back to 2003, the Jaguars are 38-9 (.809) with a positive turnover margin, including a 22-2 (.917) mark at home. Over that same span, Jacksonville is 5-27 (.156) with a negative turnover differential, including a 2-12 (.143) mark at home with a negative turnover ratio dating back to 2003. Jacksonville has lost 10 of its last 11 home games when negative. The Jaguars are a combined -6 (1 take/7 gives) in their last three contests.

A Look at Close Calls For Both KC and Jacksonville
Two of Kansas City’s losses in 2009 have come by seven points or less: 13-10 vs. Oakland (9/20) and 26-20 OT vs. Dallas (10/11). Dating back to 2006, the Jaguars are 10-16 (.385) in games decided by seven points or less and are 4-7 (.364) in games decided by three points or less.

QB Matt Cassel Directs Kansas City’s Passing Game
In his first two road contests in 2009, Chiefs QB Matt Cassel has completed 30 of 49 (61.2%) of his passes for 276 yards with two TDs and no INTs, numbers that translate into a 90.2 rating. Protecting Cassel and providing him time to throw will be essential in Sunday’s contest. Only Green Bay (31.0) has permitted more sacks this season than Kansas City (27.0). KC will face a Jacksonville defense that has registered an NFL-low 5.0 sacks. Thanks in large part to Cassel, Kansas City’s offense ranks sixth in the NFL with a 64.3 Red Zone TD percentage (9 TDs on 14 Red Zone drives).

Cassel has been particularly effective when he is under center this season, completing 36 of 61 passes (59.0%) for 399 yards with six TDs and no INTs in non-shotgun situations, numbers that translate into a stellar 111.3 rating. Cassel owns a 4-1 record when he compiles a 100.0 rating or higher (min. 20 atts.). Jacksonville is 2-8 (.200) in games when an opposing QB compiles a 100.0+ rating dating back to 2007.

Jacksonville is 13-4 (.765) when QB David Garrard posts a 100.0+ passer rating (min. 20 attempts), including six consecutive home wins under those circumstances. Jacksonville is 12-4 (.750) when Garrard throws for two or more TDs dating back to 2004. The Jaguars are 1-7 (.125) when Garrard throws two or more INTs. Garrard has suffered back-to-back two-INT games: a 30-13 loss at Tennessee (11/1) and a 23-20 OT win vs. St. Louis (10/18) when he completed 30 of 43 passes for 335 yards with no TDs and two INTs.

Chiefs-Jaguars Rushing Stats
Kansas City and Jacksonville are in a virtual dead heat when it comes to rushing plays of 10+ yards. The Jaguars have 24 runs of 10+ yards compared to 22 for Kansas City. The Chiefs would like to turn those big runs into scores. Currently, Kansas City is the only team in the NFL without a rushing TD, a trend the Chiefs would like to end this week. Jacksonville has lost eight straight games when allowing 30 or more rushing attempts and is 7-31 (.184) in such games under Jack Del Rio. Jacksonville permitted 49 carries for 305 yards and two TDs in a 30-13 loss at Tennessee (11/1).

Defensively, slowing down RB Maurice Jones-Drew will be key for KC. Jones-Drew currently ranks sixth in the NFL with 640 rushing yards. Jacksonville has won six of its last seven games when Jones-Drew tops the 100-yard mark dating back to 2007. Jones-Drew had eight carries for 177 yards at Tennessee (11/1) with TD runs of 80 and 79 yards. He produced 33 carries for 133 yards and three TDs in his last home contest vs. St. Louis (10/18). He currently leads the NFL with 10 rushing TDs and owns 310 rushing yards in his last two contests. Since the start of the 2006 campaign, only San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson (57) has more rushing scores than Jones-Drew (44).

Winning on Early Downs is Essential For Kansas City
One of Coach Todd Haley’s objectives has been eliminating negative plays, particularly on early downs. Excluding penalties, the Chiefs have 54 negative offensive plays to tie for 30th in the NFL. Those negative plays have helped contribute to the fact that KC ranks 32nd in the NFL in first-down offense, averaging 3.73 yards per play on first down. That helps explain why the Chiefs have had eight or more yards to go on second down 97 times and why KC’s offense has faced third and 10+ yards a league-high 39 times. The Chiefs have actually converted on fourth down an NFL-best 11 times and are seventh in the NFL with a 64.7% fourth-down conversion rate.

Chiefs Must Eliminate Opponents’ Big Plays
Defensively, the Chiefs stressed the importance of eliminating big plays during the bye week. Only Tampa Bay (103) and Tennessee (89) have allowed more points outside the Red Zone than Kansas City (83). Meanwhile, only Tampa Bay (11) and Tennessee (9) have allowed more TD passes of 20+ yards than Kansas City (8). The Chiefs have permitted 16 passes of 20+ yards (including five TDs) over the past four games, but allowed just two big passing plays in a 14-6 win at Washington (10/18).

The Jaguars are one of five teams that haven’t completed a pass of 50 yards or more this season. A 41-yard completion to WR Torry Holt vs. St. Louis (10/18) is Jacksonville’s longest pass play of the season. WR Mike Sims-Walker leads the squad with six catches of 20+ yards. The Jaguars have just two TD passes of 20 yards or more on the season.

If the Chiefs can reduce the frequency of those big plays, there are certainly signs of progress defensively. Kansas City ranks eighth in the NFL, forcing three-and-outs at a 28.2% clip (24 three-and-outs on 85 possessions). The Chiefs have also been tough to score on close to the goal line. KC’s defense is tied for sixth in the NFL with a 50.0 goal-to-go TD percentage (7 TDs on 14 goal-to-go possessions). Jacksonville’s offense is sixth in the NFL, scoring TDs on 81.8% of its goal-to-go possessions (9 TDs on 11 goal-to-go possessions).

KC’s Stellar Special Teams Play, Final Statistical Tidbits
The Jaguars lead the NFL, allowing opponents just 3.5 yards per punt return, while the Chiefs are a close second in that department at 3.6 yards allowed per punt return … KC ranks seventh in the NFL, allowing opponents to average 21.4 yards per kickoff return … Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles ranks seventh in the league with 17 kickoff returns of 20+ yards … Jacksonville ranks 26th in the NFL, allowing 25.1 yards per kickoff return … Kansas City’s most recent victory in Florida was a 30-20 decision at Miami (10/21/05) ... Only Seattle (33) has been penalized fewer times than Jacksonville (34) and Atlanta (34).