KC Must Control the Ground Game and Win the Turnover Duel

Sep 30, 2008, 2:02:41 AM by Pete Moris

Chiefs Need to Get Their Running Game Revved Up at Carolina

The Chiefs are at their best offensively when they get two-time Pro Bowl RB Larry Johnson rolling. Kansas City owns a 22-7 (.757) record when Johnson produces a 100-yard game, including a 3-1 mark the last four times he’s accomplished that feat vs. an NFC foe. In total, Johnson owns six 100-yard contests in 10 career starts vs. NFC competition. KC is 7-2 when Johnson registers 100 or more yards in a single half, a feat he’s accomplished in back-to-back weeks: 102 in the second half at Atlanta (9/21) and 105 in the second half vs. Denver (9/28). Johnson (415 yds.) is currently third in the NFL in rushing, trailing Atlanta RB Michael Turner (422 yds.) by seven yards. Carolina limited Turner to 56 yards last week. Johnson will be seeking three straight 100-yard outings for the fi rst time since topping the century mark four straight weeks (11/19/06 - 12/10/06).

Kansas City will face a Carolina squad that has lost 19 consecutive games when it has allowed a 100-yard rusher. The Panthers last victory in such a circumstance was a 26-23 OT decision at New Orleans (10/26/03) when Saints RB Deuce McAllister had 101 yards. Under John Fox, the Panthers have allowed 81.5 rushing ypg in their 54 wins and have permitted 137.1 ypg in their 46 losses. The Panthers currently rank 19th in the NFL in rushing defense, relinquishing 114.3 yards per game. However, Carolina’s rush defense ranks fi fth in the league, allowing opponents’ to rush for four or more yards just 31.1% of the time on fi rst down.

Kansas City’s Rushing Defense vs. Carolina’s Rushing Offense
Kansas City’s defense will face a Carolina offense that has won 15 consecutive games when it boasts a 100-yard rusher, the longest active streak in the NFL. The Panthers haven’t lost a contest with a 100-yard back since dropping a 25-16 decision vs. Philadelphia (11/30/03) when RB Stephen Davis had 115 yards. Carolina owns a 22-2 (.917) record under John Fox when it enjoys an individual 100-yard rusher. RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are splitting the Panthers rushing duties.

After permitting 204.0 rushing ypg in their fi rst three contests, the Chiefs limited Denver to 94 ground yards last week. Curtailing big plays will be a point of emphasis for the Chiefs. Kansas City permitted a league-high eight runs of 20+ yards in its fi rst three contests, but held Denver without a single rushing play of 20 yards or more last week.

Carolina has averaged 129.7 rushing ypg in its 54 wins under Fox, while managing just 82.6 ypg in its 46 losses. The Panthers currently rank 20th in the NFL in rushing at 102.5 ypg. Carolina has just two 20-yard runs on the season (one apiece by Williams and Stewart). The Chiefs have lost seven straight games when permitting a 100-yard back. KC’s last victory in such a circumstance was a 13-10 victory vs. Minnesota (9/23/07) when RB Adrian Peterson had 102 yards.

Chiefs, Panthers Seek to Win the Third-Down Battle
Moving the chains means converting on third down, something the Chiefs have improved on substantially in 2008. KC’s offense ranked 28th on third down a year ago, converting just 34.1% of the time (79 of 232). Under new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, KC currently ranks 12th in that department, converting at a 40.3% (25 of 62) clip. Dallas leads the league at 57.4%. The Chiefs will face a Panthers defense that ranks sixth in the league in third-down conversions at 30.8% (16 of 52).

Kansas City led the NFL in third-down defense a year ago, permitting opponents to convert at just a 31.3% clip (65 of 208). The Chiefs currently rank 28th in that department at 46.3% (25 of 54) and will face a Carolina offense that ranks 30th on third down at 25.5% (13 of 51). KC’s defense has allowed 22.5 offensive ppg, while Carolina’s defense has permitted 14.0 offensive ppg. A total of 31.0% (30 of 97) of KC’s total points allowed have been set up by Chiefs giveaways.

New Starters Abound on Kansas City’s Defense
KC currently has just two starters opening at the same positions as they did in the club’s usual 2007 starting lineup - Ss Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page. DE Tamba Hali has moved to the right DE position after starting his fi rst two seasons at left DE, while LB Derrick Johnson has moved to ROLB. New starters include: DTs Glenn Dorsey (D1a-08) and Tank Tyler (D3-07), DE Turk McBride (D2-07), LBs Pat Thomas and Demorrio Williams, as well as CBs Brandon Flowers (D2-08) and Brandon Carr (D5-08).

Chiefs, Panthers Two of the NFL’s Best in the Turnover Column
The Chiefs and Panthers are two of the NFL’s toughest teams to beat at home when they have a positive turnover ratio. KC has won 19 straight home games when positive. Overall, the Chiefs are 9-2 under Herm Edwards when positive. Meanwhile, Carolina has won 13 consecutive home games when positive. Baltimore owns the NFL’s longest active streak in that department with 37 straight home wins when positive.

Carolina is 33-6 (.846) when positive under John Fox, including a 16-2 (.889) mark at Bank of America Stadium. However, the Panthers have lost 14 consecutive home games with a negative turnover mark dating back to a 24-14 loss vs. Green Bay (9/13/04).

Kansas City owns the NFL’s triple crown among teams that have played every season since ‘90, owning the most takeaways (601), fewest giveaways (445) and best turnover differential (+156). KC was +3 (4 takes/1 give) last week. Dating back to the ‘95 campaign when the Panthers entered the NFL, Carolina holds the mark for the league’s most takeaways with 427. Since John Fox took the reigns of the Panthers in 2002, only Baltimore (197 prior to MNF) can boast more takeaways than Carolina (194).

Chiefs-Panthers Passing Stats
Dating back to 2002, KC owns a 22-6 (.786) record when it registers two or more INTs, including last week’s win vs. Denver (9/28). Panthers QB Jake Delhomme hasn’t suffered a two-INT game since throwing two picks in a 27-24 loss at Philadelphia (12/4/06). KC is looking for its fi rst back-to-back multi-INT games since doing it at SD (12/17/06) and at OAK (12/23/06). Delhomme owns a 14-4 (.778) record as an NFL starter when he compiles a rating of 100.0 or better (min. 20 attempts), including a perfect 10-0 mark when his rating exceeds 110.0. He had a 124.8 rating last week vs. Atlanta (9/28). The Panthers are 13-9 (.591) when three-time Pro Bowl WR Steve Smith records a 100-yard game. Last week, Smith (6-96) and WR Mushin Muhammad (8-147) combined for 14 receptions for 243 yards and two TDs. The Panthers are 8-1 under John Fox when an opposing QB throws for 300 yards or more.

Colquitt Ranks Among the NFL’s Punting Elite
In just his fourth NFL campaign, Kansas City P Dustin Colquitt already ranks second in NFL history since the AFL-NFL merger in terms of career net punting average at 38.38. Colquitt trails current Chargers P Mike Scifres by just 0.35 percent for the all-time lead. Colquitt is also one of the league’s best in terms of dropping balls inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He currently leads the NFL with 12 punts inside the 20. Panthers P Jason Baker ranks fourth in that department with nine inside the 20.

Colquitt is currently on pace to fi nish the season with 48 punts inside the 20, a fi gure that would shatter the NFL single-season record of 42 established by 49ers P Andy Lee in 2007. P Louie Aguiar set the Chiefs single-season mark for punts inside the 20 with 29 in ‘95.

Final Chiefs-Panthers Statistical Salvos
Dating back to ‘95 the Chiefs are 19-3 (.867) vs. NFC foes when holding them to 17 points or less, including a streak of eight straight wins. Carolina is 3-18 (.143) at home under John Fox when scoring 17 points or less, including losses in eight of its last nine games in that circumstance.

The Chiefs are 25-7 (.781) on the road when holding a halftime lead since ‘95. Carolina has scored 36 points and has allowed 36 points in the fi rst half of games in 2008. KC owns a 6-2 (.750) record in October games under Herm Edwards, including road wins at Oakland (10/21/07) and at Arizona (10/8/06). Carolina is 13-13 (.500) all-time in October home games and is 6-7 (.462) under John Fox.

The Panthers are 26-24 (.520) at home under Fox and have won four of their last fi ve home games after snapping a seven-game home losing streak (12/10/06 - 11/25/07). The Chiefs last road victory against a current member of the NFC South was a 35-14 win at Carolina (9/21/97). The Panthers last home win against a current AFC West foe was a 30-22 win vs. San Diego (12/17/00).

KC’s defense ranks ninth in the league with opponents’ scoring drives consuming an average of 7.67 plays. Carolina ranks 30th in that department with their opponents’ average scoring drive averaging 9.42 plays … Carolina is 8-5 when DE Julius Peppers registers a multi-sack game.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A 15-year veteran of the Chiefs, Moris is the associate director of public relations for the team and contributes an in-depth examination of each upcoming game Tuesdays in-season.