Kansas City Chiefs - Brodie's Future/QB Evaluation

Brodie's Future/QB Evaluation - Conclusion

Jul 11, 2008, 6:05:08 AM by Bob Gretz - FAQ

If you have followed our evaluation of a dozen NFL quarterbacks over the last two weeks there might be the feeling right now of being overwhelmed by all the information.

I put together that info and I’m feeling overwhelmed with it stacked on my desk. Trying to make sense of it all and how it may provide us with predictors of Brodie Croyle and his future is a tough task. History always provides a road map; it just doesn’t provide us with what street to turn on, what detours might pop up along the way or what intersection may be gridlocked because the traffic lights are out.

Pulling together all this information brings us to some conclusions, and they are not going to be a surprise. There’s no smoking gun to be found here. There are not a set number of starting assignments where we can firmly conclude that Croyle is a success or failure as an NFL quarterback. There is not a single template that matches his situation.

The history reconfirms some important points, ones that need to be re-visited because they sometimes get overshadowed in today’s world of instant analysis and immediate decision making.

Conclusion
There is one trait everyone involved in the development of a young starting quarterback must have, and must have in big amounts.

That would be patience.

We looked at 12 quarterbacks. Let’s throw out Tom Brady, because the beginning of his career as the starting quarterback for New England was the exception, maybe the exception in NFL history.

The rest of the quarterbacks all took time to develop. Some are still trying to develop, others never really did. Even Peyton Manning – considered along with Brady as the two best quarterbacks currently in the NFL – was not an immediate sensation. Only six of those 11 directed their teams to winning records in their first four seasons as the starter. Manning’s Indianapolis teams were 31-33 in his first 64 starts.

It takes time. How much time? Our study indicates that somewhere between his 24th start and his 36th start, a quarterback either takes a step forward in development or stagnates and begins to slide backwards. All this is based on the quarterback having help, meaning offensive weapons, pass protection and a decent defense helping his club. So that’s about two seasons and change when evidence has accumulated and progress is either made or begins heading in the other direction.

What does this mean for Croyle? History would tell us this 2008 season will be a roller coaster for him. If he starts all 16 games, that would give him 22 starts by the end of the season. That means it should be sometime in the first half of 2009 where he hits the crossroads and either heads forward or backwards.

The ultimate number for a quarterback is the team’s record. The Chiefs are 0-6 in Croyle’s first starts. If Croyle starts all 16 games in the coming season, getting back to the .500 mark for his career would take an 11-5 record. That’s not likely, so it may take Croyle into the ‘09 season or longer before he can even up his mark. Based on our study, that’s pretty normal.

If he follows the pattern in ‘08, Croyle will have games where his passer rating exceeds 100 and he helps the Chiefs win games with their offense. He will also have games where his passer rating falls around 50, and his mistakes will make achieving victory very difficult.

Individually, that passer rating is a good number to watch and track in Croyle’s development. The formula looks at completion percentage, average yards per attempt, touchdown percentage and interception percentage. Over the last 10 seasons, the average passer rating was 79.8. The best single season passer rating was by Manning, who reached 121.1 during the 2004 season. Last year, Brady led the NFL with a 117.2 rating. The best rating for a Chiefs passer in one season came from Len Dawson, with a 101.9 rating in the team’s first Super Bowl season in 1966.

In his six starts last season, Croyle’s passer rating was 72.5. That was less than the 10-year average. His best single-game rating was in his first NFL start, at Indianapolis, when he finished with a 99.2 rating. His worst rating was the very next week when his rating was 53.7 against Oakland.

What our study showed with the other quarterbacks was improvement was evident when the weekly passer ratings moved higher and was especially obvious when there were fewer occasions where the rating was high one week, low the next. That would establish some sort of consistency throwing the football.

By the end of the ‘08 season, Croyle’s career passer rating should be inching very close to 80, or what would be considered average. By the end of the ‘09 season, that number should be inching north of 80, towards 85. Those progressions would be natural and comparable to the better quarterbacks in our study.

For example, Manning’s passer rating after his first full season and 16 starts was 71. After 32 starts, he reached 80.6. After 48 starts, it reached an 85.3 rating. Right now his career rating is 94.7. Brady’s career rating is 92.9

Draft Position Doesn’t Matter
Forget that Croyle was a third-round pick in the NFL Draft. It has nothing to do with his chances for success in the league.

Brady was a sixth-round selection. David Carr was the first player taken in the NFL Draft.

Case closed.

Interceptions Will Kill a Career
It is simply the individual statistic involving quarterbacks that will never diminish in importance. Throw the ball to the other team, and your individual and team’s chances for success are compromised.

After their first 64 starts, three of those 12 quarterbacks had thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes: Kerry Collins (67 TDs/82 INTs), Joey Harrington (71/74) and Carr (55/57). It’s not surprising that Carr and Harrington are the two quarterbacks in that group that have had the most disappointing careers. Even when he had success with the Giants and started in the Super Bowl for New York, Collins had major problems with interceptions.

Over the last 10 seasons, passers in the NFL have averaged an interception every 31.1 passing attempts. Five of our 12 quarterbacks had averages that were worse than that in their first 64 starts, and that includes Manning. Again, fans forget that Manning had a high number of interceptions (79 in 2,242 attempts) at the start of his career. He joined Collins, Harrington, Jon Kitna and Brian Griese below the league average.

In his first six starts, Croyle had five interceptions in 177 passing attempts. That’s one every 35.4 attempts. That’s better than average and a good start for Croyle. But he must improve in that area, and push it to one interception every 40-plus attempts. He’ll get fewer throws than most quarterbacks because the Chiefs will run an offense that’s built on the running game. That will make those throws more valuable. If Croyle gets a lot of throws during the season, it will indicate the Chiefs were losing in the second half and forced to pass. That’s not a good formula for any quarterback, but especially a young one.

A Quarterback Needs Protection
Last year was the perfect storm of bad conditions for Chiefs quarterbacks thanks to the poor play of the offensive line. The pass protection was bad (55 sacks in 618 passing plays, or one every 11.2 passing plays) and the running game was especially poor (78 yards rushing per game, the NFL’s worst running game.)

Huard suffered the brunt of those problems in his 10 starts. But Croyle felt the pressure as well. He was sacked every 14.6 passing plays in his six starts, a number that was less due to his mobility.

Our study shows us that good pass protection does not guarantee quarterback production. Harrington had the second best pass protection among the 12 passers, getting sacked every 24.7 passing plays. He still struggled with a poor completion percentage (55.5 percent) and TD/INT ratio (71/74). Harrington’s record as a starter was 23-41.

But protection always makes life easier for any quarterback, but especially a young passer. No one, especially the Houston Texans, knows if Carr would have been a solid starter, because he was pounded 223 times in his first 64 starts. That was a sack every 9.3 passing plays. Carr eventually caved physically and mentally to the constant pounding.

Again, It Takes Patience, A Lot of Patience
Right now, Clark Hunt, Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards all say they are willing to live with the development of a young quarterback. But only Edwards has any experience with this, going back to his time with the New York Jets and the move of Chad Pennington into the starting lineup.

It is almost always a trying time. Fans and especially the media do not react well to the mistakes of a young quarterback. If there are doubts in the Chiefs offices anywhere about Croyle and his abilities, his mistakes will increase internal second guessing.

The changes and development that the rest of the team is also undergoing is a double-edged sword. Some will see this as an excuse for quarterback mistakes and problems. Others will expect Croyle to lead these other youngsters to a productive level.

There have been a lot of quarterbacks that have walked the path that Brodie Croyle is taking right now. There have been and will be stumbles.

History shows us that patience is mandatory.

______

Why That Dozen?
I received several e-mails along the way from readers wanting to know why I settled on those 12 quarterbacks. Here’s the process I went through. First, it was the list of the current quarterbacks with the most starts. Then, that group was filtered based on whether the beginning of the quarterback’s career was close to Croyle’s situation. Finally, we set the bar at the first 64 starts; that’s four seasons worth of games. In most cases, that’s more than enough starts to reach a conclusion.

All this gave us a group that ranges from Super Bowl winners, to quarterbacks who have faced struggles throughout their whole careers. They’ve had production and history that ranges to both ends of the NFL spectrum. I think it’s a good group to make comparisons and speculate on Croyle’s future.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

A former beat reporter who covered the Pittsburgh Steelers during their glory years, Gretz covered the Chiefs for the Kansas City Star for nine years. He is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Board of Selectors. He has been the senior columnist for the Chiefs web site since its inception.

Send this page to a friend!