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 Brodie's Future/QB Evaluation #1Jul 02, 2008, 8:37:28 AM by Bob Gretz - FAQIt will be a story line that threads its way through the entire 2008 Chiefs season. Every day, every practice, every game and most especially every post-game will include analysis, dissection and commentary on the performance of quarterback Brodie Croyle. Over the next week we will analyze what other quarterbacks have gone through, what footprints they left in the quarterback sands and how that might translate into judging Croyle’s development as the Chiefs starting quarterback. We will use contemporary quarterbacks, those who gained the starting job in the same time-frame and manner as Croyle, and what they accomplished over their first 64 games. We start today with Peyton Manning, Mark Brunell and Kerry Collins. One is considered the poster boy of the National Football League. He has a Super Bowl championship, NFL records and more television commercials than possibly any player in league history. Another is with his fourth NFL team and will serve this year as a backup, after a good, but not great career as a starting quarterback. The third has been a backup for several seasons, after once starting in a Super Bowl and dealing with personal problems that derailed his early career. Manning, Brunell and Collins touched all the bases in quarterback development early in their careers. PEYTON MANNING • When did he become a full-time starter: in his first NFL regular season game on September 6, 1998 against the Miami Dolphins in Indianapolis. The Colts lost 24-15. • The quarterback he replaced as the starter: Jim Harbaugh, who had been starter for four seasons. • Team’s record over the 64 games before he became the starter: 30-34, with two appearances in the playoffs. • Team’s record in Manning’s first 64 starts: 31-33, with two appearances in the playoffs. • Head coach: Jim Mora. • Offensive coordinator: Tom Moore • Offensive weapons available in first 64 starts: WR Marvin Harrison (64 games), RB Marshall Faulk (16) and RB Edgerrin James (48). • Pass protection: in his first 64 starts, Manning was sacked 82 times, losing 584 yards. That’s an average of a sack every 28 passing plays. He was sacked more than four times in a game just once, with five by Carolina in ‘98. • Stats for first 64 starts: 2,242 attempts, 1,531 completions, 16,453 passing yards, 68.3 completion percentage, 110 touchdown passes, 79 interceptions with a 91.3 passer rating. Analysis A decade later, fans are quick to forget that Manning was anything but an immediate success. In his first 64 games as the starter, the Colts record improved just one game. In fact, Manning went 77 starts before his career won-lost record stayed above the .500 mark. In his rookie season, Indy put up another 3-13 record, but followed that with a 13-3 mark in ‘99. They then went 10-6 and 6-10 in ‘01. What helped Manning’s immediate transition to the starting job in the NFL was coaching staff changes. Mora came in as the head coach and he brought in Moore as the offensive coordinator. Plus, Howard Mudd joined the Colts as offensive line coach. Moore and Mudd remain with Indianapolis and have provided Manning with the type of coaching stability that few quarterbacks experience over their career. Just check out this one stat to see the immediate impact of Mora/Moore/Mudd: the Colts allowed 62 sacks in ‘97 and then just 22 sacks in ‘98. They had only one different starter, although several players changed positions. Manning’s quick release also made a difference in lowering that total. After his first season, Manning had a passer rating of 71, completing 56.7 percent of his passes with 26 TDs and 28 INTs. It was about 20 games into his career that the numbers started changing for Manning and the Colts. The team went on an 11-game winning streak in ‘99, with Manning’s TDs and completion percentage going up and his interceptions and sacks going down. In other statistical categories, Manning showed early that he was a top-notch NFL quarterback. In his first four starts he had three TD passes to 11 interceptions. But by his 20th start, he had more TDs than INTs and that ratio has stayed there since. An average quarterback completion percentage is 59 percent; Manning reached that spot and stayed there after 36 starts in the league. An average passer rating is 80, and Manning took 24 starts to reach 80.7 in his career rating. He’s never been below that number since then. What can we translate to Croyle’s situation? There are some similarities between early Manning and early Croyle, and there would be more if the Colts had not fixed their offensive line problems early in Manning’s career. Manning had Faulk, James and even Dominic Rhodes to take the pressure off with the running game (all gained over 1,000 yards during his first 64 starts.) And, he always had Harrison around as a favorite target. Even with those helpers, Manning did not get his feet under him until he had 24 starts. The Colts had patience and it paid off with big dividends. MARK BRUNELL • Joined Jacksonville: in an April 1995 trade from Packers for a third and fifth-round draft choices. • When did he become a full-time starter: six games into the ‘95 season. • The quarterback he replaced as the starter: Steve Beuerlein, who was the Jaguars initial starting quarterback. Beuerlein went down in the second game of the season with a knee injury and was out two weeks, came back and started a game, but then went back to the bench. • Team’s record over the 64 games before he became the starter: none/expansion team. • Team’s record in Brunell’s first 64 starts: 38-26, with three appearances in the playoffs. • Head coach: Tom Coughlin. • Offensive coordinator: Kevin Gilbride. • Offensive weapons available in first 64 starts: WR Jimmy Smith (64), WR Keenan McCardell (48) and RB Fred Taylor (32). • Pass protection in his first 64 starts: was very poor, as Brunell was sacked 158 times for 917 lost yards. That was a sack every 13.8 passing plays. Early in his career Brunell was known for his mobility, but that was beaten out of him by the end of his second season. In his first 29 starts (including playoffs), he was sacked 85 times. He was sacked more than four times in a game seven times, including two different games where he was sacked seven times. • Stats for first 64 starts: 2,017 attempts, 1,205 completions, 14,469 passing yards, 59.7 completion percentage, 81 touchdown passes, 53 interceptions with an 84.2 passer rating. Analysis One advantage Brunell brought to the job was his two years as a backup quarterback to Brett Favre in Green Bay. Favre had just established himself as the Packers starter and was beginning to put together his successful NFL career. By the end of that ‘95 season, Brunell’s passing numbers were improving and as he went through the next three seasons, there was very little regression. His passer rating and completion percentage both made steady climbs. After 16 starts his completion percentage hit 60 percent and never went lower. Jacksonville’s problem was keeping the pass rush away from Brunell. As often happens with scrambling quarterbacks, their sack numbers stay high despite their mobility; sometimes they will scramble into sacks as often as they scramble away. One area where Brunell showed his abilities (mental and physical) was not putting the thrown football in jeopardy. In his first 30 starts, he had 22 games with one or no interceptions, despite being sacked 88 times. In that ‘95 season he did fumble 14 times, with the opponent recovering nine times. Each season after that, he did a better job of protecting the football. Brunell matured quickly in the starting quarterback role in Jacksonville, just as the Jags did as a team. But the growth stalled and after a 14-2 season in ‘99, Jax went four seasons with losing records. Brunell never took the next step into the elite levels of NFL quarterbacks and was eventually traded to Washington in 2004. This season, he’s on the pre-season roster of the New Orleans Saints as a backup to Drew Brees. What can we translate to Croyle’s situation? Not throwing interceptions, despite relentless pass rush pressure is something the Chiefs quarterback can learn from the early days of Brunell’s starting career. Protecting the football is something that will extend the career of any quarterback. Croyle must protect the football better; he had nine giveaways last year (six interceptions, three fumbles lost.) KERRY COLLINS • He went to New Orleans (1998) on waivers and signed as a free agent with the New York Giants (1999) before he got to 64 career NFL starts. • When did he become a full-time starter: in his rookie season, the Panthers first in the NFL, losing 23-20 in overtime at Atlanta. • The quarterback he replaced as the starter: none. • Team’s record over the 64 games before he became the starter: none/expansion club. • Record of teams in Collins’ first 64 starts: 31-33, with one appearance in the playoffs. • Head coach: Dom Capers (44 starts), Mike Ditka (7) and Jim Fassel (13). • Offensive coordinator: Joe Pendry (40 starts), Gil Haskell (4 starts), Danny Abramowicz (7), Jim Skipper & Sean Payton (13). • Offensive weapons available in first 64 starts: WR Mark Carrier (44 starts), TE Wesley Walls (29), WR Amani Toomer (13) and RB Tiki Barber (6). • Pass protection in his first 64 starts: Collins received poor protection with 124 sacks for 819 last yards. Collins was sacked once every 17 passing plays. • Stats for first 64 starts: 2,047 attempts, 1,095 completions, 13,173 passing yards, 53.5 completion percentage, 67 touchdown passes, 82 interceptions with a 67.8 passer rating. Analysis But that did not prepare him for the pressures of being an NFL starting quarterback. The Panthers were quite successful early, going to the NFC Championship Game in their second season before losing to the Green Bay team that won the Super Bowl. That success proved to be a mirage, as Carolina struggled in the seasons immediately after that early success. The same could be said for Collins. In his first three seasons, he threw 49 interceptions. His passer ratings frequently dipped below 50 in some games, even in that ‘96 season that led to the Panthers making the playoffs. Off the field, Collins had problems with alcohol and it all blew up in 1997-98, with an incident with his teammates and then his decision to leave the team. He was released by the Panthers in October, after the team went 0-4 to start the season. Claimed by New Orleans, he was arrested later that season on a drunken driving charge and was ordered by the NFL into rehab. “I took a long, hard look at myself,” Collins said two years later. “I found alcohol fueled the fire of a lot of my problems. I used it as a rebellious tool. It was like, by drinking, I said, ‘I’ll show you. I’ll hurt me’.” Out of rehab, the New York Giants took a chance and signed him in ‘99. By the next year, he was the team’s starting quarterback and led them to a Super Bowl appearance against the Baltimore Ravens. Collins has some impressive games that season, but he was still throwing too many interceptions and he was inconsistent. Early in the ‘00 season he had back-to-back games with passer ratings of 117.2 and 105.3. Two weeks later, he had back-to-back games with passer ratings of 48.0 and 40.6 In his first 64 starts, Collins never had more TD passes than interceptions. He never saw his passer rating go higher than 77 and his completion percentage never went over 58 percent. Those are the numbers of a less than average NFL quarterback. What can we translate to Croyle’s situation? Not much. Again, there’s the problem of interceptions. A quarterback that keeps throwing the ball to the other team, will never find stability in employment. Croyle has shown a personality in two years that is completely opposite of what Collins showed early in his starting career. Handling the pressure of the position has not gotten to Croyle so far, despite the losing and poor numbers. Collins melted under the glare and his alcohol problem. Croyle will have to deal with more ups and downs, but his level-headed approach, plus his background of dealing with the intensity of playing quarterback at Alabama, seems to put him a step ahead already of Collins. The Kerry Collins story shows that no matter how much physical talent a quarterback has, it’s worthless if the person is not emotional and psychologically stable. Obviously, Collins has some talent. He’s going to camp again with Tennessee as the backup to Vince Young. The Titans are his fifth team in 14 years. He survived his early problems. Coming on Friday, a look at Donovan McNabb, Jon Kitna and Tom Brady. The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs. A former beat reporter who covered the Pittsburgh Steelers during their glory years, Gretz covered the Chiefs for the Kansas City Star for nine years. He is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Board of Selectors. He has been the senior columnist for the Chiefs web site since its inception. |
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