Six Games In

Jun 04, 2008, 9:23:46 AM by Bob Gretz - FAQ

A milepost for evaluating NFL quarterbacks does not usually include a stop at the six-start marker.

But that’s where Brodie Croyle sits as he prepares for the 2008 season. So that’s where we will frame our epistle for today.

What can we tell after six starts? Not much really, especially when those starts come on a team playing as poorly as the Chiefs were in the second half of the 2007 season. But football presents us with plenty of numbers. And, where there are statistics, there are comparisons.

Let’s start with Croyle’s numbers for his first six NFL starts:

The most glaring number in Croyle’s resume right now is the team’s 0-6 record. It’s unfair that the starting quarterback bears the burden for a team’s record, but that’s the facts of life in pro football. Croyle’s five touchdown passes to five interceptions is a pretty good ratio for a young quarterback making his first starts. Overall, Croyle’s numbers are not the kind of statistics that impress fans and pundits.

But would those fans and pundits feel differently after looking at the statistics for the first six starts of Eli Manning’s career with the New York Giants? Here they are.

Three seasons before he became the quarterback of the Super Bowl champion Giants, three years before he was acclaimed around the country for his remarkable direction of the New York offense to the winning score in the final quarter in Arizona, Manning was in a similar spot as Croyle. All through that 2004 season, then 2005, 2006 and even into the 2007 season, fans and pundits were convinced Manning was a bust. Against Minnesota in late November last year, Manning hit just 21 of 49 passes with four interceptions in a 24-point loss to the Vikings. The boo birds and second-guessers were all over him and the Giants.

Two months later, he was taking the G-Men to a title.

Would the doubters feel differently about Croyle after seeing the stats for the first six starts of Peyton Manning’s career with Indianapolis? Here they are:

Peyton Manning was the No. 1 player taken in the 1998 NFL Draft. He came off a record setting career at the University of Tennessee and was generally considered a can’t miss pro quarterback prospect. That didn’t make his transition any easier. Just look at those 14 interceptions in his first six starts. Manning threw 14 interceptions in 16 games last season; his career average over 10 years has been 15.3 interceptions per season.

And would it matter in the evaluation of Croyle after seeing the numbers thrown up by Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger in his first half-dozen NFL starts? Here are those statistics:

Roethlisberger was a first-round selection in the 2004 NFL Draft and quickly became the Steelers starting quarterback in that rookie season, replacing Tommy Maddox after two games. The Steelers finished the season 15-1, the best record in the NFL that year, although they lost the AFC Championship Game to New England.

Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning were the starting quarterbacks for the last three Super Bowl championship teams. Like Croyle, the Mannings first starts came with a rebuilding team. Roethlisberger was luckier in his NFL lottery, landing with a veteran team, one that was especially strong on defense.

Let’s visit more distant NFL history. Here are Troy Aikman’s numbers for his first six starts with the Dallas Cowboys:

Aikman was the quarterback on three Super Bowl teams with the Cowboys and joined the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2006.

How about the old Chiefs killer, Denver’s John Elway. Here are his first six NFL starts:

Elway was the quarterback on a pair of Super Bowl championship teams and joined the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2004.

Is Croyle in the same class as Aikman and Elway, or the Manning Brothers? Of course not. Croyle has started just six games in his NFL career. Comparisons at this time are essentially silly.

But these numbers indicate what the Chiefs quarterback has experienced in his first starts is not unusual or out of the ordinary. It’s part of the growth process for nearly all quarterbacks. Many more statistics are needed before we’ll know where Croyle’s career will take him and the Chiefs.

Keep that in mind the next time somebody wants to cast Croyle as a bust. Less than a year ago, the same thing was being said of Eli Manning.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A former beat reporter who covered the Pittsburgh Steelers during their glory years, Gretz covered the Chiefs for the Kansas City Star for nine years. He is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Board of Selectors. He has been the senior columnist for the Chiefs web site since its inception.