As shocking as the Chiefs’ 4-12 finish was last season, it’s just as shocking to realize how many NFL teams finish that poorly, or worse, year in and year out.

The Chiefs were just one of a half dozen teams that won four or fewer games last year. The Dolphins, Rams, Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs and Jets will all be hoping their top-six draft picks on April 26 represent a big step in helping them rise from the mat.

How realistic are these teams’ chances of a major turnaround in 2008? Recent history suggests their chances are not all that great.

From 2000 through 2006, 30 teams finished 4-12 or worse. Only 10 bounced back to finish 8-8 or better the next season. Of those 10, just four made the playoffs: the 2007 Buccaneers, the 2006 Jets and Saints and the 2004 Chargers. The Browns, too, made a big move in 2007, improving from 4-12 to 10-6, though the tie-breaker process cost them a playoff spot.

Climbing from the bottom typically is more than a one-year project. Reaching the .500 mark is relatively manageable, but each step beyond that becomes more difficult.

Despite the NFL’s concerted effort to encourage parity, a season hasn’t passed in this millennium with at least three teams failing to win more than four games. Seven teams, or 22 percent of the league, went 4-12 or worse in 2005.

Even the NFL’s last-place teams like to believe they’re never all that far from the top. Some teams recover quickly because a poor season was more the result of injuries, bad bounces and unusual circumstances than a critical lack of talent.

The Saints never had a chance to play to their potential once Hurricane Katrina destroyed New Orleans just before the 2005 season. Spending a homeless season, they finished 3-13. Benefitting from a return to stability, the Saints reached the playoffs in 2006.

Other franchises, however, keep spinning their wheels, no matter how often they get to pick near the top of the draft. The Raiders, since winning the AFC title in 2002, have finished 4-12 or worse every year except 2004, when they went 5-11. The Lions have finished 3-13 or worse three times since 2001and haven’t been able to finish 8-8 since then.

The Chiefs can’t afford to keep that kind of company. They need to show they’re capable of rebounding from one of their poorest seasons ever rather than allow it to become habit forming.

The Chiefs’ chances for a one-year rebirth appear dicey. It’s not as if they’re coming back with a playoff-caliber roster that underachieved for a season. They’ve shed declining veterans in favor of building through the draft, and coach Herm Edwards has been up front about his plans to rebuild for the long haul.

The NFL has its share of inspiring worst-to-first stories, such as when the Patriots bounced back from a 5-11, fifth-place finish in 2000 to win the Super Bowl the next season. The 1998 Rams graduated from a 4-12 record to win the Super Bowl the next season.

Realistically, however, a two-year turnaround is the best-case scenario for most teams. Packers coach Mike McCarthy inherited a 4-12 team in 2006 and improved it to 8-8 before a 13-3 breakthrough in 2007. It’s hard to move much faster than that.

The Chiefs probably need to nail at least half their 10 draft picks to double their victory total this year. While no other league can match the NFL for upward mobility, no team vaults from the bottom to the top simply by waiting its turn.