Anybody's guess

Mar 13, 2008, 3:08:49 AM by Jonathan Rand - FAQ

You read it here first. The Chiefs, with the fifth pick of the 2008 draft, will pick Pittsburgh tackle Jeff Otah.

Unless they take Boise State tackle Ryan Clady. Or Kansas cornerback Aqib Talib.

Except if the Chiefs prefer quarterback Matt Ryan of Boston College. Or defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis of USC.

This is but a sampling of some early mock drafts in anticipation of the real thing, April 26-27. Mock drafts are like presidential campaigns – they start earlier every cycle, the big difference being that the public actually can’t wait for the mock drafts.

If you don’t like the players supposedly earmarked for the Chiefs, wait another week and when the mock drafts are updated, perhaps you’ll see the athlete you want projected in a red and gold uniform.

There is a very good reason why mock drafts can’t form even a mild consensus on the Chiefs’ top pick yet. Most likely, the Chiefs don’t know yet, either. And if they did know, they wouldn’t be telling.

The players themselves usually don’t know where they’re headed. That look of utter surprise you see on ESPN during draft day is not an act.

Any team scout or executive can start a stampede toward one player just by making one glowing remark about him during the scouting combine or a campus workout. Some teams try to throw rivals off the scent by feigning interest in a player they don’t expect to draft. Otherwise, a team in position to draft the player you really want could shake you down for the right to take him.

This is not to denigrate mock drafts. They’re fun to read or view and if they’re accompanied by good action video, who cares where that player is headed? Mock drafts also can be fairly reliable, providing you ignore them until the last few days before the draft.

NFL people, like most of us, can keep a secret for just so long. A few teams may let it slip whom they intend to pick, especially if they’re not worried about anybody else drafting him first.

Some teams have such a glaring need that the best player at that position becomes the obvious pick. Some picks are predictable by process of elimination. If three prospects seem good fits for a team but only one seems likely to be available, there’s your guy.

All it takes, of course, is one big draft-day trade to mess up everybody’s mock draft. Yet, occasionally the draft falls into place almost as if it were orchestrated. During the 2000 draft, which started with the Browns taking Penn State defensive end Courtney Brown, some of us mock drafters were able to nail the first 11 picks in the correct order.

That was the morning of the draft. In March, nobody gets that smart or lucky.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

---

A former sportswriter and columnist in Kansas City and Miami, Rand has covered the NFL for three decades and seen 23 Super Bowl games. His column appears twice weekly in-season.