RAND: A blueprint not followed

Dec 18, 2007, 3:00:27 AM by Jonathan Rand - FAQ

Somebody must have spilled ketchup on Herm Edwards’ blueprint for success this season. The Chiefs possibly can’t read it, have misplaced it or, more likely, lack the ability to execute it.

According to the blueprint, the Chiefs would assemble a solid-to-outstanding defense, which could force turnovers and set the tone for a power-running offense. This, of course, is opposite to the quandary of the Dick Vermeil years, when the Chiefs put together a league-leading offense but never could develop a defense that consistently stopped opponents when it really counted.

The Chiefs actually seemed to be following their blueprint when they won four out of five games and shared first place in the AFC West. They had a top 10 defense that could be expected to only get better and an offense that could make just enough big plays here and there to win some games.

That mix has deteriorated as the Chiefs have lost seven straight games. What they have now is a somewhat respectable defense, ranked 15th in the NFL, and a terrible offense, ranked 31st. The kick return units are poor and the fact that 43-year-old John Carney is their third place kicker this season tells you all you need to know about their season-long field goal accuracy.

When you add up these shortcomings, it’s really no surprise that the Chiefs stand 4-10.

The beauty – or in this case, ugliness – of a 16-game schedule is that a team’s every strength and weakness gets exposed and somewhere along the line wins or loses at last one game. A top 10 offense, or a top 10 defense, more often than not should keep a team afloat.

Special teams, too, will make or break a few games. While injuries and fluky plays in the last few minutes can always swing a few games, the teams with the most strengths and best balance understandably are the ones we’ll see at playoff time.

The biggest problem with the Chiefs right now is they don’t have one unit that can win a game. Their defense, which once showed signs of being able to carry the team, allowed the Tennessee Titans to score on their first four drives of the second half in Sunday’s 26-17 loss at Arrowhead.

Any outstanding defense must, first and foremost, stuff the run. The Chiefs allowed 148 yards rushing, the fourth straight game in which an opponent has run wild. Opposing runners have averaged 177 yards a game in that stretch. The Chiefs remain weak up the middle, especially with their best run stopper, tackle Alfonso Boone, sidelined Sunday.

Of course, it didn’t help the Chiefs defense that Tennessee’s second-half scoring drives started at the Titans 39, Titans 40, Chiefs 28 and Titans 47. This is what happens when your kick return units can’t win the field position game, your kicker hits a kickoff out of bounds and your offense can’t move the ball, especially not in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs’ defense would have to be perfect to protect a lead these days. The offense has gone six straight games without scoring in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Brodie Croyle threw an interception in the third quarter that led to a field goal and one in the fourth quarter that ended the Chiefs’ last drive. While the play calling emphasized short passes to keep Croyle on his feet, averaging 5.0 yards per attempt won’t win in the NFL.

It’s often a mistake to get too high or low on a team until you’ve seen all 16 games. And you know the old coach’s saw – “You’re never as good as people say you are when you’re winning and you’re never as bad as people say you are when you’re losing.”

The Chiefs have two more chances to show they are not as hapless in so many areas as they’ve indicated lately. Which brings us to the huge hole in the argument that it’s best for the Chiefs to keep losing and get the best draft pick possible. Do you really want the Chiefs to finish 4-12 and prove they’re really this bad?

If they are, it’s going to take a lot more than one high draft pick and the return of Larry Johnson to make their blueprint for success worth more than the paper it’s written on.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A former sportswriter and columnist in Kansas City and Miami, Rand has covered the NFL for three decades and seen 23 Super Bowl games. His column appears twice weekly in-season.