Kansas City Must Force Turnovers Against the Lions Pass-Oriented Offense

Dec 18, 2007, 1:19:17 AM by Pete Moris

Winning the Turnover Battle is Priority Number One vs. Detroit

Posting a positive turnover differential is always important, but it is particularly imperative against Detroit. The Lions have lost 63 consecutive games with a negative turnover ratio, by far the longest active streak in the league. It’s been over a decade since Detroit won a game with a negative turnover differential – a 14-13 win at Minnesota (12/14/97) when the club had a -1 (0 takes/1 give) ratio. Detroit was -6 (0 takes/6 gives) at San Diego (12/16).

Detroit has lost 35 straight home games when negative, another streak that ranks as the longest in the league. To put that streak in perspective, it has covered the tenures of seven different head coaches (full-time or interim) and two different stadiums. The Lions last home win when negative was a 31-28 victory vs. Atlanta (9/4/94) at the Pontiac Silverdome, a span of 13 seasons.

The Chiefs have posted a +4 turnover mark (10 takes/6 gives) in their four wins in 2007, but are -15 (11 takes/26 gives) in their nine losses. The Chiefs have been even or negative during every contest of their seven-game losing streak and haven’t been positive since a 12-10 win at Oakland (10/21). KC is 8-2 under head coach Herm Edwards when positive. KC owns five road wins during Edwards’ tenure with the Chiefs producing a combined +9 (15 takes/6 gives) mark in those contests, scoring 53 points off turnovers.

The Lions have recorded 33 takeaways this season, including a league-high 17 fumble recoveries. Only San Diego (41) has forced more turnovers. However, Detroit is tied for 30th in the league with 33 giveaways. Even more importantly, the Lions are fourth in the NFL with 100 points off takeaways. That means 32.5% (100 of 308) of Detroit’s total points have been set up by opponents’ miscues. Here’s a look at the longest current streaks of consecutive losses with a negative turnover ratio courtesy of STATS, LLC.

Kansas City is Typically Strong vs. NFC Opponents
Dating back to ‘95, the Chiefs own a 31-20 (.608) record against NFC opponents, a mark that ties as the fourth-best interconference record over that span. Only Pittsburgh (31-16-1), Tennessee (33-19) and Indianapolis (32-20) own better records in interconference play. While the Chiefs are 10-15 (.400) on the road vs. the NFC over that timeframe, KC has fared well against foes from the NFC North, owning a combined 10-4 (.714) mark against the Lions, Packers, Bears and Vikings since ‘95.

The Lions are 7-20 (.259) against AFC opponents since Matt Millen’s arrival in Detroit in 2001 with five of those seven wins coming at home. Detroit is 3-10 (.231) against current members of the AFC West dating back to ‘95. However, Detroit has registered two of those wins in 2007, getting a 36-21 win at Oakland (9/9) and a 44-7 victory vs. Denver (11/4). The Lions suffered a 51-14 loss last week at San Diego (12/16).

Pass Defense is Especially Important Against Detroit
Kansas City’s secondary will be tested against a Detroit offense that ranks seventh in the league, averaging 252.4 passing ypg. In terms of play selection, no NFL team has thrown the ball more frequently than the Lions in 2007. Detroit has dropped back to pass on 67.6% (575 of 850) of its total plays this season. Not surprisingly, the Lions have been sacked a league-high 52.0 times. Kansas City’s defense has registered 12.0 sacks in its four wins. The Chiefs sack attack is spearheaded by DE Jared Allen (11.5 sacks).

Lions QB Jon Kitna owns a 3-2 career record as a starter against Kansas City (2-2 with Seattle, 1-0 with Cincinnati). In Kitna’s three victories against the Chiefs, he’s thrown six TDs with just one INT and has been sacked only 5.0 times. In Kitna’s two losses against Kansas City, the Lions passer has thrown two TDs, three INTs and has been sacked 8.0 times.

Kitna owns an 18-7 (.720) career record when he produces a rating of 100.0 or better (min. 20 atts.), but is just 4-3 in such games with Detroit. Kitna is 2-5 with the Lions when he produces a 300-yard passing game. Dating back to 2000, Kitna is just 3-28 (.097) when he throws two or more INTs, including a 1-10 mark with Detroit. He threw five INTs at San Diego (12/16). The Chiefs are 21-6 (.778) when forcing two or more INTs dating back to 2002. KC has accumulated two or more INTs in two of its four wins this season.

Chiefs in Stadium Debuts Since 2002
Since Ford Field opened in 2002, the Chiefs have made their initial regular season appearance at seven NFL stadiums, posting a 3-4 record in those games. Kansas City’s most recent win in a stadium debut was a 23-20 victory against the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium (10/8/06).

Kansas City’s Defense Needs a Solid Performance at Detroit
KC leads the NFL in both Red Zone defense (36.8 TD %) and goal-to-go defense (42.9 TD %). The Chiefs have also forced a league-high 101 negative plays. The Chiefs will seek to contain a Lions squad that is 5-1 under Rod Marinelli when scoring 30 points or more, including three of Detroit’s six wins this season. In Detroit’s six victories, the Lions have outscored their opponents by an average margin of 29.3 to 15.8. Detroit ranks 31st in total defense (374.4 ypg) and is 32nd in Red Zone defense (63.8 TD %). Offensively, the Lions are 15th in total offense (331.2 ypg) and rank 14th in the Red Zone (53.3 TD %).

Kansas City has held nine of its 14 opponents to 20 points or less this season. The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 14.0 ppg in their four victories, a trend the club would like to continue this week. Detroit is 12-59 (.169) dating back to 2001 when the club scores 20 points or less, including a 7-23 (.233) mark at home. Since Rod Marinelli took over the Lions fortunes, his squad is 3-12 (.200) when it scores fewer than 21 points. In Detroit’s eight losses, the Lions have been outscored by an average margin of 36.9 to 16.5.

More Chiefs-Lions Scoring Stats
The Chiefs have scored 38.3% (75 of 196) of their points in the second quarter. Kansas City would like to score at a rapid rate against a Detroit defense that has allowed a league-high 153 points in the second quarter this season. The Lions most prolific scoring quarter has been the fourth quarter where Detroit has scored 34.1% of its points (105 of 308). In fact, only five teams has scored more fourth-quarter points this season. The Chiefs will be seeking to end a six-game scoring drought in the fourth quarter against Detroit. The Lions have permitted a league-high 390 total points (27.9 ppg) in 2007. Only San Francisco (325) and Miami (207) have allowed more first-half points than Detroit (204).

Kansas City’s Defense Among the NFL’s Best on Third Down
Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in third-down defense at 32.6% (59 of 181). Only Green Bay is better in that category at 32.4% (58 of 179). The Chiefs also rank eighth in the league, forcing opponents to go three-and-out on 24.4% (41 of 168) of their offensive possessions. In contrast, Detroit’s defense ranks 31st on third down at 45.9% (85 of 185) and has forced opponents to go three-and-out on 17.9% (30 of 168) of their offensive possessions.

Offensively, both teams have struggled to move the chains consistently. Only San Francisco (31.8%) and Minnesota (32.7%) have converted at a lower rate on third down than Detroit (32.9%). The Chiefs are 27th in the NFL on third down at 35.1% (71 of 202). However, the Chiefs did convert a season-high 64.7% (11 of 17) of their third downs last week vs. Tennessee (12/16).

Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Detroit Pass Defense
Kansas City is one of six NFL teams that has yet to produce a game with a 300-yard passer in 2007. The last Chiefs passer to accomplish that feat was QB Damon Huard, who threw for 312 yards in a 35-28 win vs. Seattle (10/29/07). QB Brodie Croyle is still seeking his first NFL victory and his first 300-yard performance. He will face a Detroit squad that ranks 31st in the league in pass defense, allowing 257.9 ypg. Detroit and Minnesota have both permitted a league-high five 300-yard QBs this season.

The Chiefs threw for a season-high 264 yards in a 30-16 win at San Diego (9/30). Rookie WR Dwayne Bowe set a KC rookie record with 164 yards in that contest. Bowe has already set Chiefs rookie receiving records with 61 catches for 885 yards this season. He needs just 115 more yards to become only the seventh 1,000-yard rookie receiver in the league since ‘90.

The Lions have allowed six different players to accumulate a 100-yard receiving game this season, producing a 1-5 record in those games. Dallas TE Jason Witten was the most recent player to record a 100-yard game vs. Detroit (12/19). Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez owns 22 career 100-yard outings and has 803 career receptions. Gonzalez needs 13 more receptions to overtake TE Shannon Sharpe (815) for the most catches by a tight in NFL history.

Rushing, Ball Control Stats
In Kansas City’s four wins, the club has averaged 31.3 rushing attempts for 105.8 yards. The Chiefs are 3-1 this season when producing an individual 100-yard rusher. KC will face a Detroit squad that is 0-9 under Rod Marinelli when it allows a 100-yard back. Last week, both RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (116 yds) and Darren Sproles (122 yds) topped the 100-yard plateau against the Lions.

The Lions have rushed the ball 275 times in 2007, a league-low average of just 19.6 attempts per game. Only Detroit (78.9) has averaged fewer rushing yards per game than Kansas CIty (80.9). KC has held the edge in time of possession in its four wins, holding the ball for an average of 32:11 in those contests. Detroit ranks 31st in the league in time of possession at 27:35. Only SF (26:51) has held the ball less this season.

Chiefs, Lions December Records
Dating back to 2001, the Chiefs own a 16-13 (.552) record in December, including a 4-10 (.286) mark on the road. The Lions are 6-23 (.207) in December over that same span and have lost five straight December home games.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A 15-year veteran of the Chiefs, Moris is the associate director of public relations for the team and contributes an in-depth examination of each upcoming game Tuesdays in-season.