The Running Game Will Be Key For Both the Chiefs, Titans in This Arrowhead Finale

Dec 11, 2007, 2:03:09 AM by Pete Moris

Arrowhead is Typically a Tough Venue in December

The Chiefs own an NFL-best 21-3 (.875) regular season December home record dating back to ‘95. The Chiefs have won their final home game in 10 straight seasons and are 15-1 in their last 16 home finales.

No matter the month, Arrowhead is always a tough place for opponents to play. Since the start of the ‘90 campaign, only Denver (105-38, .734) has a better regular season record than the 104-39 (.727) mark the Chiefs have compiled at Arrowhead. While Kansas City did drop its most recent home contest vs. San Diego (12/2), the Chiefs haven’t lost back-to-back December home games since ‘82. The Titans franchise claimed its last victory at Arrowhead with a 27-10 win by the Oilers (12/16/90), one of just four home December losses the Chiefs have suffered since ‘90.

Tennessee has suffered losses in three of its last four road games, but owns a very respectable 7-4 road record in its last 11 contests away from Nashville. The Titans have lost five straight road games against AFC West foes with their last victory against one of Kansas City’s divisional foes coming by a 13-10 count at Oakland (12/22/01). Since Jeff Fisher took over the franchise’s head coaching duties in November of ‘94, the Titans are 14-12 (.538) in December road games. Since the start of the ‘95 campaign, Fisher’s squads rank sixth in the league with a 33-24 (.579) record in all regular season games played on or after December 1st.

Notable Victory Droughts at Arrowhead
It’s been 17 years since the Titans franchise registered a victory at Arrowhead. In fact, the team was still located in Houston and known as the Oilers. However, six other squads own longer current stretches since their last win at Arrowhead. In addition, four franchises – Arizona, Atlanta, Dallas and Washington – have never won a regular season contest at Arrowhead. Dating back to ‘95, the Titans own the NFL’s fifth-best road record with a 53-49 (.520) mark. Here is a look at the teams with at least one victory at Arrowhead that have gone the most seasons since their last win on KC’s home field.

Arrowhead Is An Inhospitable Locale for Opposing QBs
Kansas City has won 21 of its last 24 games against QBs in their first or second year as NFL starters who are making their initial appearance as a starter at Arrowhead. Titans QB Vince Young (D1-06) is scheduled to make his inaugural start at Arrowhead on Sunday. The Chiefs are 30-4 (.882) at Arrowhead dating back to ‘95 when the club forces two or more INTs. The Titans own a 3-6 (.333) record in games when Young is picked off two or more times, including last week’s 23-17 OT loss vs. San Diego (12/9).

The Titans are 1-7 dating back to last season when allowing an opposing QB to compile a 100.0-rating game. Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle (D3-06) is still looking for his first NFL win and his first triple-digit rating game.

Turnovers Are Always Critical For Kansas City
The Chiefs are 45-4 (.918) at Arrowhead with a positive takeaway margin dating back to ‘95. KC has won 18 consecutive games when positive at home dating back to 2002, the fourth-longest active streak in the league. KC is 8-2 under head coach Herm Edwards when positive. The Chiefs also own an 8-3 record under Edwards when committing one turnover or less. The Chiefs have posted a +4 turnover mark (10 takes/6 gives) in their four wins in 2007, but are -12 (11 takes/23 gives) in their nine losses.

The Titans are 21-6 (.778) with a positive turnover differential on the road since 2000, including five straight wins. The Titans are just 5-23 (.179) on the road when negative over the same timeframe. Overall, the Titans are 4-11 with a negative turnover mark since 2006. Only BAL (35), HOU (33), SF (32) and ARZ (32) have committed more giveaways than TEN (30) in 2007.

Chiefs, Titans Are Both at Their Best When They Run Well
The Chiefs and Titans are both at their best when they can run the ball effectively. In Kansas City’s four wins, the club has averaged 31.3 rushing attempts for 105.8 yards. In the Chiefs nine losses, KC has averaged just 22.3 carries for 68.9 yards. Staying balanced offensively is always important for the Chiefs. In those four wins, the club has run 48.1% of the time and has dropped back to pass on 51.9% of its plays. In those nine losses, KC has run just 36.9% of the time and has attempted to pass 63.1% of the time.

The Titans currently rank ninth in the league in rushing, averaging 133.5 ypg. Only Pittsburgh (33.6) has averaged more rushing attempts per game than Tennessee (33.2) this season. The Titans have averaged 37.4 carries and 158.9 rushing ypg in their seven wins, while registering 28.3 carries for 104.0 yards in their six losses. Tennessee is particularly effective running the ball on the road. Since the start of the 2006 campaign, no NFL team can top the Titans road rushing average of 149.9 ypg.

Kansas City Leads NFL in Red Zone, Goal-to-Go Defense
Kansas City’s defense is the league’s best when it comes to playing in the scoring zone. The Chiefs boast the NFL’s top Red Zone defense, allowing just 13 TDs on 33 opponent trips inside the Chiefs 20-yard line, good for a 39.4 Red Zone TD percentage. On average, NFL teams are allowing TDs at a 52.1% clip inside the Red Zone this season. Tennessee’s offense is 31st in the league in Red Zone offense, scoring 17 TDs on 46 Red Zone trips (37.0 TD percentage).

The Chiefs also lead the league in goal-to-go defense, allowing opponents to score six TDs in 13 goal-to-go situations for a 46.2% goal-to-go TD percentage. In fact, the Chiefs are the only team that has relinquished fewer than 10 goal-to-go TDs this season. On average, NFL defenses have allowed TDs on 67.2% of their goal-to-go situations this season.

The Titans are tied for 23rd in the league in goal-to-go offense, scoring TDs on 61.5% (16 of 26) their goal-to-go possessions. KC’s offense is tied for fourth in the NFL with a 75.0% goal-to-go TD percentage (six TDs on eight goal-to-go drives). Unfortunately, the Chiefs are tied with Atlanta (8) for the fewest goal-to-go trips in the NFL and only the Falcons (3) have scored fewer goal-to-go TDs.

Expect a Defensive Duel at Arrowhead between the Chiefs, Titans
The Chiefs and Titans are two of the NFL’s top scoring defenses. Both clubs have allowed opposing offenses to score exactly 243 points in 2007, an average of 18.7 offensive ppg (excluding return scores). The Chiefs have given up just 24 offensive TDs, meaning only Pittsburgh (18), Indianapolis (21), Tampa Bay (22) and Minnesota (22) have allowed fewer. Tennessee has permitted 28 offensive TDs in 2007. In terms of overall TD percentage allowed, Tennessee is eighth in that category, permitting TDs on 18.3% (28 of 153) of their defensive possessions. The Titans also rank sixth in total defense, relinquishing 297.6 yards of total offense per game.

The Chiefs are tough to beat at Arrowhead when holding the score down. Kansas City has held nine of its 13 foes to 20 points or less in 2007. The Chiefs own a 55-10 (.846) record at Arrowhead dating back to ‘95 when holding foes to 21 points or less. Tennessee has been held to 20 points or less in all six of its losses in 2007. Dating back to 2005, the Titans are just 1-13 (.071) on the road when they are held to 20 points or less. That lone win was a 13-10 decision at Jacksonville (9/9) on Opening Day.

However, the Titans are also tough to beat when they keep opponents out of the end zone. Tennessee has allowed 20 points or less in six of its seven victories this season. The Titans have won 10 out of their last 11 contests when holding their foes to 20 points or less dating back to 2006.

Chiefs, Titans Have Both Been Involved in a Number of Close Calls
The Chiefs have actually been tied or ahead at halftime in five contests during their six-game losing streak. However, KC has struggled to score points in the second half. Only ATL (19) and NYJ (33) have scored fewer points in the third quarter than KC (36). The Chiefs have also been held scoreless in the fourth quarter of their last five contests. Dating back to last season, Tennessee has been involved in 18 games decided by seven points or less. The Titans own an 11-7 (.611) record in those contests, including a 5-3 mark in 2007.

Final Chiefs, Titans Stats to Consider
Tennessee ranks fifth in the league in time of possession (31:33). KC has held the edge in time of possession in their four wins, holding the ball for an average of 32:11 in those contests. The Chiefs have forced 92 negative plays to rank second in the NFL. KC forced 97 negative plays in all of 2006.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A 15-year veteran of the Chiefs, Moris is the associate director of public relations for the team and contributes an in-depth examination of each upcoming game Tuesdays in-season.