RAND: Hard to figure

Jun 28, 2007, 2:57:15 AM by Jonathan Rand - FAQ

The Chiefs finished last season as a wild card — a team that made the playoffs despite lacking a division title. They will start the 2007 season as a wild card — a team that could come up with any kind of a hand.

Neither training camp nor the preseason is likely to reveal a whole lot about the Chiefs. They’ll open the season as one of the league’s most unpredictable teams and, for sure, the most unpredictable team in the AFC West.

This shouldn’t come as a big surprise, considering Herm Edwards, entering his second season, is accelerating the transition from a team dominated by veterans to one with youngsters at several key spots. Edwards reinforced his commitment to a younger roster by projecting 42 rookie or first-year players for the start of training camp.

His long-term approach is fundamentally sound and the Chiefs appear primed for their most consistent success since the Marty Schottenheimer era. But Edwards’ short-term results are where the real guesswork comes in.

Dramatic transitions usually involve growing pains. So far, Edwards has kept them to a minimum and, surprisingly, made the playoffs as he began dismantling Dick Vermeil’s team.

Granted, some season-ending serendipity was needed for the Chiefs to make the playoffs. Yet a 9-7 record and only the team’s second playoff spot in nine years was nothing to sneeze at, especially not with upheaval at quarterback. Now there’s even more upheaval at quarterback with second-year passer Brodie Croyle getting an honest chance to win the job.

Edwards would be the first to admit he won’t really know if Croyle is an NFL quarterback until he gets a chance to play. Veteran Damon Huard, 5-3 as a starter last year, would appear the safer pick. But Edwards is much less conservative when it comes to playing youngsters than choosing his offense. So Croyle could be a wild-card quarterback for a wild-card team.

Every offensive area, in fact, is a wild card for the Chiefs, except running back and tight end. Every area on defense, except linebacker, is somewhat of a wild card, too, with unproven newcomers or second-year players needed to make a difference on the line and in the secondary.

The biggest certainty for the Chiefs is that their defense will keep improving. It advanced to 16th in yards allowed a year ago, from 25th the year before, and Edwards’ commitment to defense and upgrades in personnel can only make the unit better. How much better? For the Chiefs to make the playoffs, their defense had better rank among the league’s top 10.

The offense also ranked 16th a year ago, but would be doing well to hold that position, given the change at quarterback and retirement of future Hall of Fame guard Will Shields. The mix of a power running offense and stingy defense should put the Chiefs in a lot of close, low-scoring games, which helps explain why they drafted kicker Justin Medlock.

Success in close games, though not all of them low scoring, was a key to the Chiefs’ winning record last year. They stood 5-3 in games won by seven or fewer points, including 4-0 at home. They will have to be at least that successful in nail-biters to become stronger in 2007.

The Chiefs will be every rookie’s inspiration…and every prognosticator’s nightmare.

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The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A former sportswriter and columnist in Kansas City and Miami, Rand has covered the NFL for three decades and seen 23 Super Bowl games. His column appears twice weekly in-season.