GRETZ: What To Expect From Bowe

May 09, 2007, 8:38:45 AM by Bob Gretz - FAQ

So what kind of production can we expect from Dwayne Bowe in his rookie season with the Chiefs?

Bowe and the Chiefs will write their own story in the 2007 season. But what the history of other first-round receivers shows us is that very few make a big splash in their rookie seasons. Very few.

Let’s start with the numbers. Here are the top 25 receivers in the National Football League from last season and what they did in their rookie year:

Among the top 25 receivers of last season, only four went over 1,000 yards in their rookie season and only 10 went over 750 yards. More than half of the 25 receivers did not top 500 yards as rookies.

Here’s more. Since and including the 2002 Draft, there have been 19 wide receivers taken in the first round. Here’s what those receivers were able to do in their rookie seasons:

Only one of those 19 receivers topped 1,000 yards as a rookie and only six topped 750 yards in that first season. On average, this group of first-round wide receivers averaged 37 catches for 540 yards and 3.5 touchdown catches for that first season.

Break those averages down to a per-game basis and the contribution is this: two catches for 34 yards and a touchdown catch every fifth game.

That’s hardly a major contribution to any offense. What are Bowe’s chances of breaking out of that first season malaise? Right now on paper, they don’t look good.

The Chiefs quarterback position is in flux. If inexperienced Brodie Croyle wins the starting job, that will effect the productivity of the passing game. The Chiefs offensive line is also in a state of flux, with possible problems for pass protection. No matter who is at QB or blocking, the first choice of this offense is going to be running the football with Larry Johnson. No matter the passer, the first choice as a receiver is not going to be Bowe. It’s tight end Tony Gonzalez. Then Eddie Kennison. Then, maybe Bowe.

Another factor is contract negotiations. First-round holdouts have become common these days; Bowe’s participation and production will be effected if he misses training camp time.

In his favor are these factors: the head coach wants his younger players on the field; there’s no entrenched player to block Bowe’s move into the starting lineup; Samie Parker does not have that strong of a hold on the job and because of his experiences at LSU, the NFL game is not going to overwhelm him.

It would be a shock if Bowe matched the numbers of another LSU rookie receiver Michael Clayton (80 catches for 1,193 yards.) It would also be a shock if he finished the year with the numbers of 2004 first-rounder Michael Jenkins in Atlanta (seven catches for 119 yards.)

So much of what will determine Bowe’s contribution is out of his hands, before the ball even gets in his hands. If he shows up for camp on time, if he puts in the work between now and the start of the season, if he stays away from injury, he can become a factor in the offense as a rookie.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A former beat reporter who covered the Pittsburgh Steelers during their glory years, Gretz covered the Chiefs for the Kansas City Star for nine years. He is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Board of Selectors. He has been the senior columnist for the Chiefs web site since its inception.