Just Like 2003, Turnovers, the Rushing Game & Special Teams are Keys vs. the Ravens

Sep 28, 2004, 2:03:17 AM by Pete Moris

Playoffs Are Still a Possibility With a 1-3 Start

Dating back to ‘98, six teams have started the season at 1-3 and have still qualified for the playoffs. The 2002 Titans actually began the year 1-4 before going 10-1 in the final 11 contests to win their division and advance to the AFC Championship Game. KC needs a win at Baltimore in order to have a shot at becoming the seventh team to do it since ‘98.

More Chiefs-Ravens Turnover Data to Ponder for Monday Night
In its two previous wins at Baltimore in ‘99 and 2003, KC has not committed a single turnover, posting a pristine +7 mark in those victories thanks to six INTs and one FR. Forcing at least one Ravens INT in this contest could prove a good omen for the Chiefs. In the last 27 games the Ravens have lost, Baltimore has thrown at least one INT. Winning the turnover battle is also critical for the Chiefs, who own a 12-3 (.800) record in their last 15 games with a positive turnover ratio dating back to 2002.

Since Brian Billick took over the helm of the Ravens in ‘99, Baltimore is 40-2 (.952) when owning a positive turnover mark, including a streak of 33 consecutive wins. The Ravens haven’t lost a regular season contest when owning a positive turnover mark since losing 10-3 at WAS (10/15/00) when Baltimore was +1 (2 takes/1 give). Conversely, the Ravens are 1-29 (.033) when owning a negative turnover ratio since ‘99, including a string of 17 consecutive losses. Baltimore’s only win with a negative turnover margin since ‘99 was a 24-21 victory at JAX (11/25/01) when the club was -2 (0 takes/2 gives). The Ravens are 8-3 (.727) with an even turnover mark under Billick. Remarkably, Baltimore is a whopping +82 (151 takes/69 gives) in its 49 regular victories and -63 (36 takes/99 gives) in its 34 regular losses dating back to the start of the ‘99 campaign.

Holmes Seeks to Produce 5,000 Yards in 50 Games with KC
Chiefs RB Priest Holmes needs just 59 yards to become only the fourth RB since the AFL-NFL merger in ‘70 to reach the 5,000-yard plateau with a team in 50 games or less. Eric Dickerson (45 games - Rams), Earl Campbell (46 games - Oilers) and Terrell Davis (50 games - Broncos) have previously accomplished that feat.

Holmes (100.8 ypg) is the only active RB with at least 40 games to his credit who has averaged more than 100.0 rushing yards per game since 2001. Clinton Portis (WAS) has averaged 107.1 rushing ypg in 31 games, while Jamal Lewis (BAL) has averaged 105.7 ypg in 35 contests. No NFL back has more rushing yards than Holmes (4,941) since 2001.

Winning the Ground Game is a Priority for KC, Baltimore
Controlling the ground game will be a priority for both teams in Monday night’s match-up. KC is second in the NFL, averaging 5.1 yards per rushing play, up from 4.5 yards per rush after three games in 2003. The Chiefs are also tied for the league lead with 14 runs of 10+ yards.

KC is 12-9 (.571) when RB Priest Holmes posts a 100-yard game. Four of Holmes’ last six 100-yard outings have come on the road, but putting up big rushing numbers will be tough at Baltimore. The Ravens didn’t permit any back to rush for more than 105 yards in 2003, allowing just two 100-yard efforts last season – 105 yards by Ricky Williams at MIA (11/16/03) and 105 yards by LaDainian Tomlinson at SD (9/21/03). The Ravens have gone nine straight games at M&T Bank Stadium without allowing a 100-yard back. The last player to do it was NO’s Deuce McAllister who racked up 127 yards in a 37-25 win at Baltimore (12/8/02). Baltimore has lost four of its last five games when allowing a 100-yard RB.

KC is 5-1 all-time on MNF when it produces a 100-yard rusher, including a 17-10 win at Oakland (10/20/03) when Holmes tallied 123 yards. The Ravens lone 100-yard rushing performance on MNF was a 133-yard game from RB Terry Allen vs. MIN (1/7/02).

The Ravens own an 18-5 (.783) regular season record when RB Jamal Lewis tops the 100-yard barrier, including a 10-2 (.833) mark at home. One of those losses came last year when KC registered a 17-10 win at Baltimore (9/28) despite 115 yards from Lewis. KC’s rushing defense is tied for the NFL lead by forcing 23 negative rushing plays. Those numbers put the Chiefs on pace to force 122 negative rushes on the year, a remarkable achievement considering that KC ranked 23rd in the league in that department in 2003 with just 43 negative rushes.

Trent Green Has Been Mr. Consistency at QB for the Chiefs
QB Trent Green will make his 52nd consecutive start for KC on Monday, giving him the longest starting streak by a QB in Chiefs history. HOF QB Len Dawson set the previous standard of 51 games from 10/31/65 to 9/21/69. Green’s starting streak is the fourth-longest among active NFL QBs. During his 51 previous starts with the Chiefs, KC has compiled a 27-24 (.529) record with Green throwing 70 TDs and just 52 INTs, good for an 84.4 rating.

Since the start of the 2001 campaign, the Ravens have compiled a nearly identical 28-23 (.549) regular season record, a remarkable achievement considering that Baltimore has employed five different starting QBs over that timeframe. As a team, the Ravens have thrown 55 TDs and 55 INTs in those 51 contests, good for a 71.4 composite rating. Those Ravens starting QBs have included: Elvis Grbac (9-7), Kyle Boller (7-5), Jeff Blake (4-6), Anthony Wright (5-2) and Chris Redman (3-3).

Getting Off to a Fast Start is Important vs. Baltimore
Beating Baltimore becomes more difficult when its defense plays with the benefit of a lead. In last season’s 17-10 win at Baltimore (9/28/03), the Chiefs never trailed, a feat KC would like to duplicate this year. Dating back to the start of the 2000 campaign, the Ravens are 26-7 (.788) when scoring first and just 15-19 (.441) when their opponent scores first. That bodes well for KC, which is 10-3 (.769) in its last 13 contests when scoring first.

The Chiefs are 19-4 (.826) on the road dating back to ‘95 when leading at halftime. A solid first half is important against a Ravens squad that owns a 37-5 (.881) regular season record when entering the second half with a lead dating back to ‘99. In fact, the Ravens own a streak of 11 straight wins when leading at halftime dating back to 2002. The last time Baltimore led after two quarters and lost was a 14-13 setback vs. Cleveland (12/22/02) when the Ravens led 10-7 at the half. Baltimore is just 7-26 (.212) when trailing at halftime since 2000. The Ravens have lost 14 of their last 16 contests when trailing at halftime, including last year’s contest which KC led by a slim 3-0 margin at the intermission.

WR Dante Hall the NFL’s All-Time Best in Long-Distance TDs
WR Dante Hall provided the winning points in last year’s 17-10 victory at Baltimore (9/28/03) courtesy of a 97-yard kickoff return TD. Hall’s 11 career regular season TDs have come from an average distance of 79.8 yards, the longest mark of any player in NFL history with at least 10 scores to his credit. Ravens CB Deion Sanders ranks fourth on that chart with his 20 career TDs coming from an average distance of 67.3 yards.

Although Hall has yet to crack the end zone in 2004, his presence in the return game is unquestioned. The Chiefs are 6-0 in regular season competition when Hall returns a punt or a kickoff for TD. KC has produced three return TDs in its last two trips to Baltimore. In addition to Hall’s KOR score in 2003, the Chiefs defense registered a pair of TDs on INT returns in a 35-8 win at Baltimore (10/21/99). Monday’s game will also feature two of the NFL’s top all-around special teams performers. Chiefs DE Gary Stills (100 career special teams tackles) is second on KC’s all-time special teams tackle chart behind LB Greg Manusky (147). Stills replaced Ravens LB Adalius Thomas in the Pro Bowl a year ago. Thomas led Baltimore with 23 special teams stops before suffering an elbow injury.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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A 15-year veteran of the Chiefs, Moris is the associate director of public relations for the team and contributes an in-depth examination of each upcoming game Tuesdays in-season.