Running backs a tricky read

Apr 28, 2003, 4:47:00 AM

By Jonathan Rand

APR 28 (morning)--Chiefs fans might be worried because NFL rivals considered 26 players better bets than the Chiefs' first-round draft choice, Larry Johnson from Penn State. But those fans can take heart because NFL teams are so often so wrong when it comes to picking running backs.

This seems odd. Find a guy who's big and fast, gains a lot of yards and scores a lot of touchdowns for a big-time college program, and he shouldn't miss in the NFL, right?

Not so fast. Ron Dayne broke the major college career rushing yardage record for Wisconsin and was the 11th overall pick for the New York Giants in 2000. He's been a bust. Michael Bennett, a less-heralded Wisconsin back, dropped to the 27th spot of the first round in 2001 and, as an injury replacement, made the Pro Bowl last season. These aren't aberrations. You could make a long list of NFL star running backs who outperformed backs who came out of college more highly regarded.

Some backs are misjudged even after breaking into the NFL. Priest Holmes wasn't even drafted in 1997 and only started in one of his four seasons in Baltimore before he became a free agent. During two seasons in Kansas City, he turned into arguably the NFL's best back until he was injured in the 14th game last season.

Whether Holmes recovers from a serious hip injury will determine how much the Chiefs play Johnson. The Chiefs are one of those rare teams hoping their first-round draft choice will not have to start.

Holmes' injury taught the Chiefs he's not indestructible, and if they're lucky enough to get him back at full strength, they'll no doubt stop overusing him. They also learned that, despite the high quality of their offensive linemen, not any back can line up behind them and excel. Mike Cloud's low production while stepping in for Holmes made that clear.

Could Johnson, 6-1 and 228, step in and succeed? With 2,087 yards rushing and 20 touchdowns last season, his production is impressive. But he comes from a system friendly to running backs, a situation that makes scouts worry if a back is a superior talent or just a pretty decent athlete plugged into a failsafe position. Nebraska tailbacks present the same problem.

Virtually every 1,000-yard rusher in college seem impressive on highlights films as they scamper through secondaries. The main headache for scouts is projecting whether those backs will ever be able to get into an NFL secondary.

Backs like the Rams' Marshall Faulk or Holmes, when healthy, rack up big yardage because they're so quick hitting the hole. No matter how talented an NFL offensive line may be, it can't open and hold the huge holes backs may enjoy in college. Holes close quickly in the NFL and only a back with a burst can get through them.

Some teams were leery that Johnson, a reserve his first three seasons at Penn State, was just a one-year wonder. That shouldn't be a big concern. The Colts' Edgerrin James made only 17 starts at the University of Miami before he became the fourth pick of the 1999 draft and an immediate star. He showed astonishing quickness to run through a hole and make the first would-be tackler miss.

Scouts don't make their money identifying such obvious talent. They earn their keep with picks like Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary, all 1,000-yard rushers for the Denver Broncos despite being picked the second day of the draft.

The Chiefs are betting they've outscouted the competition by drafting Johnson. This was considered a weak draft for backs and the Bills preferred Willie McGahee of Miami, though he's recovering from major knee surgery and may not play this year.

If Holmes becomes healthy and satisfied with his contract, Johnson seems a safe bet as a worthy reserve. But if Holmes isn't available, can Johnson become the kind of big-time back needed to maintain the NFL's highest-scoring attack?

The Chiefs are probably in trouble if they need an answer to that this season.

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The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Jonathan Rand has written about the NFL for the past three decades in Kansas City and Miami and has covered 23 Super Bowl games. He is a former Kansas City Star sports columnist, Chiefs beat writer and NFL reporter. He is a free-lance writer living in Kansas City.